Partner or Enemy? What to expect from Biden’s China Policy?

While China is one of the largest and fastest growing economies in the world, she is different from other rich and democratic countries – China is a dictatorship, run by the Chinese Communist Party. Although there have been debates that the economic success in China would turn the authoritarian regime to be liberal and democratic as other wealthy countries, this has not been the case and the West, particularly the US, now sees China as the greatest threat to democracy and freedom due to her extensive human rights violations, military expansion and unfair trade practices. Furthermore, since Trump became president in 2017, the US-China relation has much decayed through actions such as trade war, sanctions and racially charged language. However, as Trump is leaving the office as US President in about a month, the world puts a greater focus on the China Policy of the incoming Biden administration because his policy could define and have lasting impacts on the world power and systems. In the following analysis, this article suggests that Biden’s China Policy would be shaped by the core American values – democracy, human rights, liberty and openness.

With these values in mind, in light of the political repression in Hong Kong and the north-western region of Xinjiang, Biden is expected to be tough in response. Over the past months, China has debased the pro-democracy movements in Hong Kong as terrorism and a threat to national security, subsequently arresting opposing students, politicians and tycoons as well as disqualifying the ‘unpatriotic’ legislators. Meanwhile, in Xinjiang, China is accused of abusing human rights by detaining, torturing and ‘brainwashing’ millions of ethnic Uyghurs in detention camps. With these serious violations of human rights, it will be no surprise that Biden would maintain sanctions and restrictions and possibly impose even stronger measures to China to affirm his stance and values.

Trade is another important area where Biden is expected to uphold fair trade practices and ethical standards, specifically in the sector of information technology as it is what will dominate the next creative destruction and industrial revolution which could reshape global orders. In China, there is a culture of hard work and a massive domestic market, generating immense economic growth over the past decades. Further strengthened by government subsidies, her internal network effects and the Belt and Road Initiative to expand its power and markets, China now has notable achievements in information technology such as 5G mobile network and software in communications and finance, which would pose threats to the liberal world since Chinese information technology ignores the privacy standards that the West appreciates, potentially using the collected data to monitor users and attacking the foreign intelligence services. Concerning these risks, Biden is anticipated to continue the restriction imposed by Trump on Huawei, a Chinese telecommunications giant which is regarded as a major security threat, to limit Chinese technological expansion. At the same time, it is expected that Biden would reverse the anti-globalisation sentiment and foster co-operation with countries with shared values in technology because it is rare for any one country to master the full range of specialisms in the field; for example, Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors and Germany in lenses. Such co-operation would benefit the liberal world in terms of collaborative progress and development against China. To again promote globalisation and an open America, in contrast to the America First Policy and Trump’s trade war, it is not expected that Biden would continue with Trump’s tariffs as his policy tool because import tariffs are transferred to American consumers eventually. Furthermore, at the end of the day, it is not unnatural for an economy to have a trade deficit with another country. As long as Biden could confirm China plays by the trade rules, enormous tariffs are unnecessary.

Even though Biden would take a more unfriendly stance towards China when it comes to human rights and trade, it is projected that Biden would favour openness and co-operation with regard to global crises such as public health and climate change in which Trump tried to avoid. On one hand, due to the current pandemic, the very likely moves Biden would take promptly when he is in office are to re-join the World Health Organisation to be a global leader in directing vaccination and restoring normality; he would also attempt to resume stationing specialists from the American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in China for research purposes. On the other hand, facing climate change, Biden believes the importance of global co-operation and it is highly anticipated that he would re-join the Paris Agreement and persuade China to reduce carbon emissions.

Partner or Enemy? Biden is not expected to treat China as an ally nor an enemy. Instead, this article expects Biden’s China Policy to be more pragmatic and to reflect the values that the American cherish. Nevertheless, with negative public views of China at a historically high level and a Congress that has become more hostile to China, there are still many factors affecting his policy.