Japan’s Transition from Abe to Suga: Japan’s New Prime Minister Promises Continuity

When asked about a common misconception of him, the newest Japanese Prime Minister said,

"People think I'm scary but I'm very nice to those who do their job properly.[i] "

Yoshihide Suga comes across as an unsmiling and steely government spokesperson and is known in Japan as ‘Mr Abe’s Fixer’. Nicknamed amongst Japanese journalists as the ‘Iron Wall,’ Suga was the longest serving Chief Cabinet Secretary in history with a reputation for being tough and disciplined. After ex-prime minister Shinzo Abe’s abrupt resignation due to deteriorating health conditions, the 71-year old politician was officially named to continue Abe’s legacy.

Son of a Strawberry Farmer

A lesser known fact of Yoshihide Suga is that he doesn’t have any familial ties to politics unlike his many predecessors. Instead, he was born in rural northern Japan into a family of strawberry farmers. Suga attended Hosei University to study law – apparently it was the cheapest option available and he even worked in a carboard factory in Tokyo to pay his tuition.

Suga seems to give the impression of a ‘People’s Prime Minister’ and a ‘Self-made Man’ due to his ordinary background. Ken Kato, owner of a small business and a paid-up supporter of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) regards the prime minister as a dedicated man who worked his way up in the political world through his own hard work and endeavour, following up with the suggestion that many would appreciate his humble origins when he comes to power[ii].

Indeed, Suga’s leadership looks promising. Although the public have had no say on his elevation to the position of prime minister. According to the latest Nikkei poll, public support for the Suga administration remains high, with 63% of respondents giving approval for Suga’s cabinet. Although the cabinet approval rate has already decreased 11% since its first poll, approval rating was still higher than the majority of the Abe administration, reinforcing the support the general public has for the new cabinet.

The Legacy of Abe’s Economic Policy

One of the first major issues to tackle as prime minister would be the Japanese economy. Japan has a history of economic stagnation after the Second World War, therefore Suga’s predecessor introduced an ambitious economy reform policy to pull Japan out of a deflationary slump. Coined ‘Abenomics’, economic policy under Abe has three focuses: stimulating fiscal spending, monetary easing and structural reforms to boost private investments.

Although Abenomics failed to reach some of its proposed goals, with the inflation target still elusive in addition to criticism about the lack of boldness in transforming establish practices such as lifetime employment, Abenomics has undeniably help jumpstart the Japanese economy. Since the start of the Abe administration, nominal GDP has risen by 451 billion USD; unemployment rate decreased from 4.3%-2.4% while private investment increased by 151 billion USD.

From Abenomics to Suganomics

Suga was instrumental in implementing Abenomics, and therefore it is unlikely for there to be drastic changes. He is also widely expected to follow in Abe’s footsteps with regards to economic policy by Japan’s governing party when he was elected prime minister. Suga himself has pledged to revive economic growth via reforms such as deregulation, while adapting but mostly sticking to his predecessor’s Abenomics stimulus policies.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked economic havoc in Japan. The Japanese economy has shrunk a record 28% in the 2nd quarter of 2020. The 7.9% economic contraction due to the outbreak of COVID-19 saw Japan slipping into economic recession[i]. Therefore, despite the established successes of Abenomics, which supposedly set high standards for economic continuity, the untimely pandemic changes everything, with Suga inheriting and having to resolve the economic disaster at hand.

Despite all things, there seem to hope for revitalising the economy. Fortunately, the pandemic is largely under control in East Asia. Tom Learmouth, Japan economist at Capital Economics, pronounces public pressure on Suga to reform Japan’s complex and undigitalised administrative systems that drag on productivity. Such reforms have the potential to lift trend growth amidst the pandemic, he added.[ii]

And this was exactly what the new prime minister did. Within a few days of appointment, Suga vowed to work on legislation for digital agency within the government in mid-September, and aims to craft outline for said digital agency by the end of the year. This illustrates Suga’s swift determination to bring change to Japan and will take necessary steps without hesitation, hopefully bringing Japan back to a state of stability.

Continuation in International Agendas

Yoshihide Suga is not known to be strong in foreign and security policies. Indeed, Suga who mostly focused on domestic affairs is relatively less experienced than Abe in foreign policies, with his predecessor making 81 overseas visits in his nearly eight-year term to raise Japan’s international profiles. It is interesting to note that Suga was, however, involved in every major foreign policy decision made by Abe as chief cabinet secretary under the Abe administration.

Although the new administration’s focus is on domestic economic recovery, due to Japan’s past strong focus on maintaining mutually beneficial foreign relations.In addition to the fact that Suga is a through and through ‘Abe-loyalist’, it is safe to assume that foreign policy is unlikely to change significantly or become inward-looking. Suga himself emphasised during his election campaign for LDP leadership that he would follow in Abe’s footsteps concerning foreign policy.

FOIP

One of the main focus of foreign policy is the ‘Free and Open Indo Pacific (FOIP)’ strategy, and considering one of the three pillars of FOIP is ‘the pursuit of economic prosperity’, it is likely that Suga will continue the FOIP vision. It is significant that FOIP is endorsed by the United States and other Indo-Pacific partners – one of the great achievements of the Abe administration was getting the Trump administration to recognise the importance of FOIP, which increasingly believes that FOIP will be integral to determining the future security and prosperity of the United States and have now even adopted it as the US regional strategy[i]. The US–Japan alliance weighs heavily in Japan’s foreign policy. It would be beneficial to continue the FOIP vision to maintain good relations with America, as one of the aims of FOIP is the gather like-minded democratic nations that it almost seems unreasonable to reverse established good relations.

Furthermore, Japan’s FOIP vision has a long and established history which has gradually evolved over the past decades by recognising and reviewing the changing geostrategic reality in the region. Japan’s strategic focus on both Australia and India, for instance, started as early as the 2000s when China’s regional presence began to grow rapidly. In light of this, FOIP — whether a ‘strategy’ or ‘vision’ — is something that principally tied the country’s existing regional policies together, instead of being something that materialised in one day.

Doubts about Suga’s Diplomatic Dexterity?

Professor of Comparative Politics, Japanese Politics, and Political Theory Koichi Nakana pronounced that ‘When it comes to the public face of the party… he’s really unsuited because he’s not very eloquent.[ii]’ This is with regards to the 14th September cabinet victory speech, which the professor described as being pervaded with ‘ponderous tones with long pregnant pauses. In spite of that, Suga’s recent successes in diplomacy in Vietnam as the two government pledged to strengthen security avid growing aggression of China around the region illustrates the inherent political and negotiation skills that Suga embodies despite not having much diplomatic mileage.

Suga’s recent visits to Vietnam and Indonesia reinforces Suga’s recognition of the dangers posed by China and his resolution to maintain goof foreign relations. According to freelance journalist Tetsuo Suzuki, Suga’s years-long aversion to the LDP’s faction system has made him a ‘loner’ surrounded by few reliable lieutenants. It is perhaps crucial that Suga appoints close members in the National Security Council to aid him in foreign agendas. Professor of international politics Yuichi Hosoya speculates that as long as Suga chooses suitable individuals as advisors and be careful in maintaining previous courses in terms of diplomacy without much radical change, continuity and progress in foreign policies will ensue[i].

It is unclear how successful Suga’s premiership will be – while it is widely speculated that economic and foreign policies will stay in the same course, politics is complex, multi-layered and ever changing, especially in the midst of a global pandemic. Whether Suga will live up to his cabinet’s proclaimed desire to maintain stability and continuity is hugely dependant on pursuing the daunting mission to tackle immediate issues, namely dealing with the pressing nature of Japan’s COVID-19 outbreak while reviving the economy, not to mention to fulfil the ambition for Tokyo to host the 2021 Summer Olympics in time. Only time will tell if he can deliver victories when it's time for the next election.

[i] Hosoya, Yuichi. “Japan's Foreign Policy: Abe's Legacy.” Institut Montaigne. Institut Montaigne, September 18, 2020. https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/japans-foreign-policy-abes-legacy.

[i] BASSLER, CHRISTOPHER. MIND THE GAP: NATIONAL VIEWS OF THE FREE AND OPEN INDO-PACIFIC. Report. Edited by STIRLING SHARON. German Marshall Fund of the United States, 2019. 49-53. doi:10.2307/resrep21474.12. [ii] Wingfield-Hayes, R. (2020, September 16). Yoshihide Suga: The unexpected rise of Japan's new prime minister. Retrieved November 1, 2020, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54172722

[i] “Japanese Economy Shrank a Record 28% in 2nd Quarter, Due to Coronavirus.” Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times, September 8, 2020. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-09-08/japan-economy-record-shrinkage-second-quarter-coronavirus [ii] Lee, Yen Nee. “'Abenomics' Fell Short - Japan's New Prime Minister Will Have to Pick up the Slack.” CNBC. CNBC, September 3, 2020. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/03/charts-show-successes-and-failures-of-abenomics-in-lifting-japans-economy.html

[i] Bagshaw, Eryk. “Yoshihide Suga to Become Japan's next Prime Minister.” The Sydney Morning Herald. The Sydney Morning Herald, September 14, 2020. https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/yoshihide-suga-to-become-japan-s-next-prime-minister-20200914-p55vhe.html. [ii] Ryall, Julian. “Who Will Lead Japan after Abe? Washington Visit Offers New Clues.” South China Morning Post, May 5, 2019. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3008809/us-trip-japans-chief-cabinet-secretary-yoshihide-suga-sparks.